11 November 2024

Some old numbers from K.L. Saigal

Listening to his songs, I was reading up about his life and learnt a lot. For one thing, I did not know that the epicenter of Hindi movies was Calcutta before it moved to Bombay. Apparently, he sang under the name Saigal Kashmiri (he was born in Jammu) for the first few movies before changing it to his real name – Kundan Lal – but used his initials. He died at the age of 43, a few months before India got its independence. His death was due to his alcoholism, the records indicate.

Interestingly, before becoming a singer-actor, he was a railway timekeeper for some time (did not finish school), then a typewriter salesman and then a hotel manager!

Growing up, we heard quite a few of his Bengali songs. That was a language he picked up much later in his life.

10 November 2024

This book could have been alternately titled “A guide to Hysteresis Curve”

This Saturday, there was not much action in Farmers’ Market. Most of the vegetable folks were missing due to the cold weather. Picked up this book from a coffee stand.

Purportedly this will bring my experiments in coffee and mixology together. Wonder what lack of barista skills added to lack of bartender skills sum up to.

Will try a drink this evening. Would be interesting to see if the alcohol makes me sleepy or the coffee keeps me awake!!

2 November 2024

Saturday music evening… after a really long time

“যেমন করে মেঘ যায় গো উড়ে
যেমন করে সে হাওয়ায় ভাসে
কই, তাহার মতো তুমি আমার স্বপ্নে কভু ভাসো না তো
অলির কথা শুনে বকুল হাসে
কই, তাহার মতো তুমি আমার কথা শুনে হাসো না তো”

Like the way the clouds float by
Like the way they waft into the winds
How come you never shimmer into my dreams
But in the same way?

Like the ways the bees’ humming words
Drive the flowers to endless chortle
How come you never laugh at my own words
But in the same way?

30 October 2024

Why I almost broke into a dance in the doctor’s office

In a streak of single minded determination, I tried going after the unwanted protrusions in my body – all this week. Some poet, in an inspired moment, no doubt has written “Deformities, thy name is Rajib” or something of similar import. After throat, came the wrist.

This thing on my wrist came up around the same time I got into trouble with my throat. And also around the time I started bicycling. Since it was not hurting, I did not care much about it. But when I met my friend Avijit in Australia (who is in the medical industry), he had advised me to see a doctor although his guess was it is entirely benign.

There I was, in front of an orthopedic surgeon. First, I had to get the X rays done. Then the assistant came in. Abbey was her name. Very friendly, young lady who always wanted to be in the medical field. By the time she was done taking all my vitals and writing down the notes, I had figured out her entire life. Or most of it at least.

Presently, the doctor came. Believe it or not, for about 15 minutes we talked about PE firms!! And we had a good debate on “PE industry… is it really a Ponzi scheme?” In his defense, he finally did bring me back to my persistent swelling.

After the consultation, we looked at the options and unlike the throat outgrowth, here we basically decided to just live with it. I did not care about the grotesque look (it is on brand with my image of not caring about my looks) and it does not give me any pain anyways.

The doctor left and Abbey came in. She handed me some paperwork, printouts of my X-rays and a business card in case I changed my mind and wanted to go ahead with the surgery anyways.

“What was the diagnosis, Mr. Roy?”

“This is a cyst”. And an inspired moment, I added in a sing song voice… “Ganglion style” 🙂

(It is a Ganglion cyst but I am sure you get the musical reference).

Both of us laughed out loud!!

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29 October 2024

The fine art of choosing between medical options

“Good news, Mr. Roy. There is no cancer!”
“And, what is the bad news?”, I asked my otolaryngologist, mildly worried
“Well, we still have to go in and take it out”, he said sympathetically.

I kept on staring at the small outgrowth in my voice box showing up brilliantly in the big monitor. A few minutes back, I had to go thru the uncomfortable procedure of cameras going down my nose and diving deep in the voice box and then video recording all the muscle movements as Joey (doctor’s assistant) instructed me to make all sorts of weird noises.

All this came about when I reported to my general physician about breathing shortness while talking. I thought he would take me thru all sorts of lung and heart tests to look at abnormalities. Instead, he asked a few questions and did the initial diagnosis. The logic of which was pure and I was struck by how quickly he narrowed it down.

“Are you still running?” he had asked.
“Yes. Although miles have gone down and so has speed. Also, I have started biking.”
“Good. Good. Good. Are you feeling any shortness of breath while running or biking – more than what it used to be a year back?”

It suddenly occurred to me. I have had no discomfort doing any exercise. Only when talking – especially in the morning, on Zoom calls or phone calls.

“Actually no.” I said, a bit perplexed myself.

He was clear in his mind though. “Well, there you go. Your lungs and heart are fine. There seems to be a problem in the voice box and you are having to take more effort to push the air thru. I would ask you to immediately see my friend Dr. Law”.

And there I was as Dr. Law, laid down the law for me on a surgery.

I was too busy staring at the video and in complete awe of how the whole thing works. I guess I had asked one too many question. The doctor asked his assistant to instruct the scheduler to give him ten minutes. She stepped out. He took off his gloves and manipulating the video frame by frame, patiently explained to me the different muscles that come together to make noise. He showed me how my flaps were closing asymmetrically compared to another video he had. And all this because of the outgrowth. I could have sat there for another hour and learnt how the whole laryngitis area works.

But I was struck with another question.

“Without biopsy, how did you know it is not cancer?” I asked getting a bit worried that I was taking too much of his valuable time.

I guess doctors do live by the maxim “Treat the patient, not the disease.” Because he doubled down on showing me pictures of what a cancer in that area would look like. The surface dryness, the shape of the outgrowth and all that.

“You match none of the three mandatory symptoms. I will return my degree if proven wrong.”

Somewhat assured by his confidence, I returned to our question in hand…

“So, what are our options?”

“Well, Option 1 is surgery. We will go thru your mouth and take it out. 100% chance of recovery.”

“What are the risks?”

“Negligible. No more and no less than other options.”

“Can it come back after the surgery?”

“Very rare. We might see one case in three to four years. Usually always benign.”

“Post surgery, will there be any restrictions – like eating and all that?”

I suddenly remembered that Dr. Vine in Dallas had told me I had to stop drinking wine for the medicine (Methotrexate) that he was going to put me on to combat the onset of psoriatic arthritis. I landed up getting him to refer me to another doctor who would do a deal with me – half a glass of wine every evening, half the dose of medicine, twice the time of recovery and every Monday drawing of blood to keep a watch on the liver.

“Well, we do not want any scars in that area immediately after surgery. So, you cannot talk for 5 days.”

“Come again?”

“No talking for 5 days. Absolute silence.”

“Well, Option 2 it is then, doctor!” I declared without even hearing what that option was!!! So much for my intellectual curiosity.

This had nothing to do with learning. I was in no mood to make Sharmila THAT happy.

Or my office friends, for that matter!!!

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26 October 2024

Book Review: Obliquity by John Kay

This is one of those books that totally gets me. I cannot possibly overemphasize the importance of reading this book if you are a leader of any kind – business, community, politics or even of your own household. The book, at least for me, articulates eloquently the struggle I have had with simplistic solutions I hear in business world on how to solve problems – “right talent” often being suggested as the panacea. This book – along with a cursory reading of a book like The Drunkards Walk should give a sobering thought to anybody who wants to be a leader.

By the way, I got to know about this book while listening to a Ted Talk by Rory Sutherland. Another guy with some great concepts

I am quoting a few paragraphs together from the book as is but there is simply no substitute to reading the book. And if you do read the book, call me. Would love to discuss your thoughts.

Excerpts:

The success of the physical sciences has encouraged us to believe there might be a science of decision making. All kinds of problems in our business and our financial lives, in the political and personal spheres, could then be managed objectively. Such a scientific procedure would, if done carefully enough, lead every conscientious person to the same answer. As a result, both political and personal disputes could be resolved by applying evidence and rational discourse. The distinction of the great business leader, the measure of financial acumen, would rest only in the ability to arrive at the right answer faster than other people.

There is no such science, and there never will be. Our objectives are typically imprecise and multifaceted; they change as we work toward them, as they should. Our decisions depend on the responses of others and on what we anticipate those responses will be. The world is complex and imperfectly understood, and it always will be.

We do not solve problems in the way the concept of decision science implies, because we can’t. The achievement of the great statesman is not to reach the best decision fastest but to mediate effectively among competing views and values. The achievement of the successful business leader is not to foresee the future accurately but to continuously match the capabilities of the firm to the changing market. The test of financial acumen, as described by Buffett and Soros, is to navigate successfully through irresolvable uncertainties.

Mostly, we solve problems obliquely. Our approaches are iterative and adaptive. We make our choices from a limited range of options. Our knowledge of the relevant information, and of what information is relevant, is imperfect. Different people will form different judgments in the same situation, not just because they have different objectives but because they observe different options, select different information and assess that information differently; and even with hindsight it will often not be possible to say who was right and who was wrong. In a necessarily uncertain world, a good decision doesn’t necessarily lead to a good outcome, and a good outcome doesn’t necessarily imply a good decision or a capable decision maker. The notion of a best solution may itself be misconceived. The skill of problem solving frequently lies in the interpretation and reinterpretation of high-level objectives.

There is nothing wrong with using trust as a basis for decision. Finding people you can trust, or establishing trusting relationships with them, is the most effective—often the only effective—means of achieving the delegation that is necessary to accomplish objectives and goals in large organizations. Successful decentralization relies on the transmission of high-level objectives, not just intermediate goals and basic actions, to the agents who will implement them. This is a world apart from principal-agent models that treat social organizations as mechanical systems in which agents respond to the stimuli that incentive structures impose.

Obliquity is the best approach whenever complex systems evolve in an uncertain environment and whenever the effect of our actions depends on the ways in which others respond to them. There is a role for carrots and sticks, but to rely on carrots and sticks alone is effective only when we employ donkeys and we are sure exactly what we want the donkeys to do. Directness is only appropriate when the environment is stable, objectives are one-dimensional and transparent and it is possible to determine when and whether goals have been achieved. The world of politics and business today is afflicted by many hedgehogs, men and women who mistakenly believe the world is like that.


12 October 2024

Book Review: Home Sweet Anywhere by Lynne Martin

I believe it was Roger who had pointed me to this book. The book was about how a couple (almost my age) sold their home in the USA and lived in other countries. The sentiment so violently aligned with my thoughts and dreams that I bought the book and jumped my “To Read” queue and brought it to the fore.

Somewhat expectedly, the book is about the experiences the author and her husband had while living in a cruise ship and 9 other countries – all in the Americas or Europe (with the exception of Morocco). It is an anthology of various snippets of events that happened to them. Undoubtedly the stories were very interesting. There is lucidity in her writing and some sense of humor too! The author was featured in Wall Street Journal.

That said, it completely disappointed me. The main reason is that my expectations were very different. The 9 countries were all covered in a matter of year and a half or so. So, it was really a few weeks to a couple of months max at any place. I was looking for a little more – maybe 3-5 years in a place. Perhaps, that is what my dream is and that is why I was hoping to learn from their experiences.

Living for a few weeks at a place cannot possibly give you the full experience of a place. You would not have enjoyed all the seasons to begin with. 3-5 years also forces you to immerse in other aspects of life – language as an example (although in this case, most of the countries could be gotten by with speaking English or Spanish) Cultivating a social circle of friends and acquaintances is another.

Note that I am not taking away anything from their experiences. Certainly, I do not know of anybody else who sold their house, packed up and went out in the world without a place to call home. The courage to do so, in of itself, is highly commendable. All the same, I will look forward to hear from somebody else who has done it for longer stretches of time.

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9 October 2024

I am not saying this really happened at my house, I am just saying

The office calls ran a bit late due to time difference with the other end. Finally, at 9PM we ambled towards downtown Alpharetta and presently, settled down in one of the Taverns. Some MLB playoff game was playing on the TV and I partook of one of their specialty cocktails.

Back at home, she got busy with the dog who, was unfortunately, fighting an ear infection. And I opened the refrigerator door, somewhat desultorily, I might add, devising ways to kill the aftertaste of the aforementioned cocktail.

There were some nice Indian sweets right in front of me virtually screaming “Take me Take me”. Somehow, the prospect of eating sweets did not appeal to me. Has not had for over three decades. Closed the door and went to the pantry looking for some salty food. Finally, grabbed a few salty nuts and threw them into my open mouth.

As I closed the pantry door, I was swiftly accosted…(I learnt that treating ear infections for dogs does not take as much time as I thought)

“What are you doing?”

“Oh! I was looking to get rid of the drink from the palate”

“There are some good sweets in the fridge”

“Yeah! I saw that.”

“And…?”

This is where I made good on a comeback moment that I had been waiting for. At least a couple of days.

I casually dropped in my answer – “Oh! this lady we both know mentioned to me the other day that I am getting a beer belly”.

Predictably, she laughed out aloud and looked at me. She obviously remembered.

Unpredictably (for her), I did not respond. Just kept chewing those salty nuts nonchalantly.

It had its effect.

The mood started changing like the Fall weather. Slow at first and then rapidly.

The laughter was the first to die. Then the grin got wiped out.

All sorts of doubts started creeping in her mind. That frown said it all.

“WHICH LADY TOLD YOU THAT?”, she demanded to know.

My good job having been done, I went upstairs and made a beeline for the bed.

Went under covers to squelch the squeals of laughter.

Our comforters are pretty thick that way.

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23 September 2024

Book Review: The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow

Sitting at a bar, Sharmila said “I am having difficulty reading this book for my book club”
“Is it very violent or too dense?”, I asked
“ I can’t follow it at all”
“What is the name? What is the thesis?”
“The Drunkard’s Walk”.
“Oh! In statistics, that is a common problem discussed. If a completely drunk man could take a step east, west, north or south at every step randomly, after “n” steps, what is the chance he is back to his original spot?”
“That is what the book is all about. Chance. Probability.”
“That is my kind of book. Why are you reading it?”
“Well, Seemita-di chose that book”.

Without any fear or favor, I immediately started reading that book since she had already paid for it.

You know how there are certain kind of books that you relate to immediately? For me, it is the genre of human behavior, behavioral economics and so on. But when you put that with Talent in the corporate sector, you have topped it up like you cannot any more.

Few things bristle me more than people who think they understand talent and can predict what kind of talent can cause success. What bristles me precisely is the assumption of determinism and not realizing how much luck or chance plays in the outcome. Little surprise that in get togethers of ex employees of an old startup that succeeded spectacularly before crashing equally spectacularly (and I was fortunate enough to have gone thru the journey) I stick out as a sore thumb when I point out that chance was a bigger factor in our success rather than somehow we had the most brilliant people in this earth and that we suffer from nostalgia when we wipe out all the failures we had on our way to success and then the spectacular burn out.

This book, if not anything, bolstered the basis of my thoughts. Did I mention, I love this book? 🙂 (Psychologists will call it Confirmation Bias 🙂 🙂 )

In summary, the book endeavors to explain how chance plays an outsized role in our personal and professional lives and of all the things we take into account explaining or predicting performance, that is the one thing we do not talk about.

Some quotes from the book:

1. When (Sports) teams fail, the coach is often fired. Mathematical analysis of firings in all major sports, however, has shown that those firings had, on average, no effect on team performance.
2. If the details we are given (of anything) fit our mental picture of something, then the more details in a scenario, the more real it seems.
(RR notes: I can see this in the postings of my Dem and Rep friends on the two Presidential candidates daily in my newsfeed)
3. Availability Bias: In reconstructing the past, we give unwarranted importance to memories that are most vivid and hence most available for retrieval
(RR notes: This is part of the startup recollection)
4. We associate randomness with disorder.
(RR notes: In reality total randomness is actual perfection – it can never be reached)
5. When we look closely, we find that many of the assumptions of modern society are based on shared illusions.
6. There is a fundamental clash between our need to feel we are in control and our ability to recognize randomness. That clash (of control versus helplessness) is one of the principal reasons we misinterpret random events.
7. Not only do we preferentially seek evidence to confirm our preconceived notions, but we also interpret ambiguous evidence in favor of our ideas.
8. “Chance is a more fundamental conception than causality” – Nobel laureate Max Born
9. We cannot see a person’s potential, only his or her results, so we often misjudge people by thinking that the results must reflect the person.
10. But ability does not guarantee achievement, nor is achievement proportional to ability. And so, it is important to always keep in mind the other term in the equation – the role of chance.