Quiet evening by the lakeside yesterday
Finally the total count “grossed” up!
I have been tracking since Nov 2014 the countries that my blog readers come from. Hit the 144 number yesterday after a long wait (with about 65 thousand readers). (Was 143 for about six months). The top two countries (by reader count) is of course USA and India. China is third. Interestingly, a large number of hits from China are on to my Puzzle pages!!

Not looking that good
My niece set up the video call on my sister’s phone so I could see dad. He clearly was struggling. It appears that three of his organs – lungs, kidneys and heart are worsening. As a result he is not able to breathe well.
He was laying down there – but was able to hear. When my niece let him know that I am there on the phone, he did open his eyes and even made an effort to get up. Had to be helped a little and was clearly in pain.
Sharmila, Natasha and Nikita gathered around me to see how he is doing (you can see us all in the inset on the top).
Let’s hope his pain subsides – one way or the other.

It is probably coming down to the short strokes now
The good news is that he was recovering from the smaller stroke fairly fast. However, the problem in breathing has lingered on. And in fact getting worse.
This is not COVID. He was always a COPD patient. I am sure decades of smoking unfiltered Charminars somewhere caught up with him. Last ten days, mom has been increasing the nebulizer frequency steadily to help in his breathing. From once in two days to once a day to twice a day to eventually thrice a day.
Unfortunately, this is not improving the situation much. However, taking him to a hospital is not an option. He will surely catch an irrecoverable infection.
This morning, things have reached what looks like the onset of a point of no return. He just cannot breathe much. Has been getting up and lying down constantly in bed.
One of the greatest blessings I have is that my sister lives downstairs from him and my brother is a couple of hours drive away. My sister and brother in law have arranged for an oxygen cylinder at home (which during these days of ventilator shortages is a feat unto itself).
Mom is reporting that he is being too restless and taking off all the attachments from his face. From other behavioral descriptions (again forgetting names), he might be having a series of very small (ischemic?) strokes.
It will be a miracle and I will be very surprised if he can pull thru this one.

Contains 99% Alcohol?
An encounter with a virus
Recently, my friend Preeti Jain and her whole family were afflicted with the Covid-19 virus and had a fairly harrowing time recovering from it. The good news is that they are all out of the woods now. She wrote up some reflections from that ghastly encounter.
Click on the link below if you wish to read her reflections. (It is a PDF document of a few slides)
An encounter with a virus – Preeti Jain

A man is known by the company he keeps
I am not terribly sure how I manage to get into these situations – certainly level of IQ does not explain it – but recently I found myself in a great discussion on COVID and COVID expansion with a few luminaries. It was hosted by University of Virginia professor Dr. Madhav Marathe (under normal circumstances, I would kick that Dr. part – since he and I were college mates in Computer Science in IIT-M). The other luminary was Kiran Vaya – retired telecom executive from Motorola.
And then there was myself, trying to figure out how to spell “C-O-V-I-D”.
I have to say, I am amazed by how Madhav and Kiran were quickly able to draw the parallels between the spread of the virus and how cell packets are distributed thru the cellphone network. For whatever I remembered of Computer Science, that made amazing sense to me.
But what blew me away was Madhav (or should I say Dr. Marathe)’s explanation of why academia holds back from forecasting often. It is what he referred to as variables that are “endogenous” to the system.
If you did not get it in the first blush, count me in.
Here he what he explained lucidly to the audience…
Think of weather forecasting versus pandemic forecasting. Regardless of what the meteorologist forecasts, the weather is going to turn out exactly to be the same.
Not so for pandemic. The forecast of an outcome will change the behavior of the public – which will change the outcome itself!! That is a fascinating feedback-cycle!!
How do you forecast?
One thing I have learnt about great education. It is all about asking the right questions. Not necessarily having all the right answers.
Thank you Madhav and Kiran, I think I left the forum with a lot more questions than I had answers.
And that is the way it should be.





