Here is another puzzle
There are three archers – Hubert, Anamika and myself. Hubert is the world renowned, highly decorated Olympics champion from Belgium who is a “sure shot”. Meaning he never misses. Then there is Anamika – who is a amateur archer but has gotten her game to a point where she scores 2 out of 3 times. And then there is Rajib – yours truly – who barely knows which end of the arrow should point towards you. And I have an average starter’s chance of success – 1 in 3.
We find ourselves in a contest where we can only survive by killing the other two. (One successful shot with the arrow is enough to kill anybody). Also, we three are highly intelligent and know how to calculate probabilities of success. (With that level of intelligence, how we got ourselves into this situation is a good question but terrible for this puzzle).
The rules are the following:
Since I am the novice, I get the first shot.
Next, Anamika – being the second best shot goes. Of course, that assumes I did not aim at her and succeeded in which case Hubert goes next.
Once Hubert has had a chance (assuming he was still alive after I and Anamika had our shots), the cycle continues.
So it is me -> Anamika -> Hubert -> repeat till there is one person standing.
The question is: What should be my strategy as the first shot to maximize my chances of still living after the whole ordeal.